A loss discounting framework for model averaging and selection in time series models

Abstract

We introduce a Loss Discounting Framework for forecast combination which generalises and combines Bayesian model synthesis and generalized Bayes methodologies. The framework allows large scale model averaging/selection and is also suitable for handling sudden regime changes. This novel and simple model synthesis framework is compared to both established methodologies and state of the art methods for a number of macroeconomic forecasting examples. We find that the proposed method offers an attractive, computationally efficient alternative to the benchmark methodologies and often outperforms more complex techniques.

Publication
International Journal of Forecasting, 40(4), 1721-1733

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